Will Ethereum close above $6,000 by end of 2026?
Resolution Rules
Executive orders, state laws and appropriations riders do not count. The bill text must name AI systems as its primary subject. Signing must be reported by at least two major outlets.
Resolves YES if a bill primarily regulating frontier AI development or deployment is signed into federal law before polls open on November 3, 2026.
Discussion
142 comments · Sort: TopThe bipartisan Senate framework leaked last week explicitly targets frontier models. If it gets attached to the appropriations bill in October, this resolves YES. Positioned heavily.
Election-year gridlock is the default. The Senate framework is a signal, not a bill. I'd put this closer to 30%.
Base rate for major tech legislation in the last 30 years is ~12%, but conditional on active committee markup + industry backing it jumps to ~55%. Both are true here.
Enter arms · Enter confirms · Esc cancels · ±1% slippage guard